Stratification in the Age of AI
I often feel like I live in two (or three, or four, …) different Worlds now. Part of it is the natural “context switching” that goes on with all the normal life activities when juggling the roles of parenting, working, socializing, etc. For me there is also the fact that I belong to two different cultures, and putting on a different mindset whenever I go back and forth between those aspects of my identity. But I feel that the current AI revolution is creating a new rift in the society. Those of us who work in tech and have been glued to all the latest AI developments feel like everything is changing, really fast, and nothing will ever be the same again. And then we step out of that bubble, and first of all it hits us that we really are in a bubble, and that no one else is really noticing the enormous change and the implications of all the AI developments. So far most people’s lives have not been affected in the least, and if they have done something with GenAI it was to generate a few cool images, some silly poems, or maybe to get an information about a small project that they are working on. Nothing groundbreaking, nothing earth-shattering, and definitely no sense of urgency that the World is about to completely change. And then you start second guessing yourself and wonder if you have not maybe drank too much AI Kool Aid, and might need to go into detox.
Maybe the “truth” about what is going on, and what is about to happen, is somewhere in between. Maybe the AI technology is truly groundbreaking and revolutionizing, and will indeed change everything - but a only for those who already happen to be within some invisible technological event horizon. In certain professions and field AI will either make lots of work obsolete, create mega winners out of those who can focus on the high value added work, and push many others out of those professions altogether. It will also create many other activities and lines of work that we couldn’t have imagined just a little while ago. (Prompt engineering anyone?) However, it is very likely that many other professions and lines of work will remain either unaffected or marginally influenced by the AI, at least for a foreseeable future. After all, we already live in a world where access to different resources technologies is unevenly distributed. Barriers to entry, both natural and artificial, are rampant, and in most cases intransigent and hardened. New barriers may arise, and some old ones may fade away, but the outlines of what lays ahead may already be visible in what we see around us now.
Really good observation. It is difficult to follow these tech advancements closely and get excited while at the same time seeing others outside without any interest or care of them. The second guessing may be an important part of the process of evaluating something new.
I think this is a more accurate take about AI than that offered by certain breathless venture capitalists. The world is a very large and complex place, and technology and tech companies account for a relatively small portion of it. Though it is in some sense true that software is eating the world, to use Marc Andreessen's apt phrase, it is not true in the way that most technologists understand that phrase. Software has made inroads in every business, and will continue to do so far into the future. But what software eating the world looks like varies, significantly, across industries, and between companies within a given industry. AI is remarkable technology. But it's not magic. Companies are full of people, and people are complex beings: territorial, averse to change and risk, desirous of control, etc.
At the same time, people who are not technologists, who dismiss AI as yet more hype, will be behind the curve. The answer is not to conclude that AI is yet more vaporware hype promised by Silly Valley, but, rather, to engage with it, experiment with it, and learn how to incorporate it into whatever work one does.